In modern sports it has become an obsession to talk about who is the “GOAT”, A.K.A., greatest of all time. Unfortunately, over the years, the conversation has escalated in frequency and devolved in to who has the most “chips”, as in championships. And that supposedly ends the discussion.
Growing up, I don’t recall Bill Russell being anointed as the GOAT even though he was the best player on those great Boston Celtic teams. Same with Terry Bradshaw of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I was a tennis fan for years before I heard the name Roy Emerson. FYI, that’s the guy who had the record of grand slam men’s title’s before Pete Sampras and then Roger Federer broke his record.
What a gross over simplification chip count is. Science suggests that in order to accurately compare two samples you would have to put them under the same conditions.
For example, in order to fairly compare San Francisco 49er QB legend, Joe Montana, to rising all-star QB of the Seattle Seahawks, Russell Wilson, you’d have to clone every person they’d ever played with and against, was coached by and against, and play the games in the same weather conditions and under the same league rules. This would give you the fairest and most accurate comparison between the two. Don’t get mad at me, that’s science. But this is sports so let’s not let a little thing like science spoil all the fun.
Before the chip obsession we relied on statistics, clutch performance, the optics of what our eyes told us. Players with chips stood out but it wasn’t the be-all and end-all that it seems to be today. Other factors were and should also be considered. Such as teammates, coaches, level of competition, rules changes, and so on.
Further, the difference between winning and losing can be so small and contingent on these other factors that have nothing to do with a player and warrant that they be considered. With that in mind I am going to try to marry a little science with the optics and take a look at some of the so-called GOATs in a few different sports.
TOM BRADY – He just led his team to the greatest comeback in the NFL’s Superbowl history. Congrats to Brady and the Patriots. It was a great/historic comeback that in the eyes of many clearly cements Brady as the greatest ever. After all it gives him one more chip than Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw.
As great as the comeback was…
- Atlanta’s defensive back drops a potential interception that would’ve sealed the game. *
- Atlanta did mismanage the game clock. Their offensive coordinator called plays that moved them out of field goal range which would have sealed the game before New England’s game tying drive.
- The refs missed a face mask call that should have offset a holding penalty, giving the Falcons another down and 10 yards of field position.
- Julian Edelman makes a great/miraculous catch. Coach Bill Belichik makes great second half adjustments.
- N.E. defense plays great in the 2nd half.
- Specials teams plays great.
- Offensive line gives Brady much more time in second half.
*(In fairness to Brady, had Asante Samuel not dropped a potential interception of Eli Manning, against the N.Y. Giants, in 2008, Brady/ Pats win another SB.)
Brady still had to do his thing, and he did, but if ALL of those things don’t happen we’re talking about his pic six, and open receivers he missed during the game, because Atlanta likely wins.
Not every QB plays with the assets Brady has had throughout his career. True, he’s not playing with hall of fame wide receivers (except for when he had Randy Moss), but the guys he’s throwing to are often open. Brady deserves his share of the credit but that does also speak to the system and to the coaching.
Two more words for you with implications on how Brady is viewed in the pantheon of great quarterbacks: Tuck rule.
Yes, of course Brady is great, all-time great, but like other greats, you give him time, he will pick you apart, you pressure him, like the Giants did in two Superbowls or Atlanta in the first half of this one, and he becomes mortal. Give a handful of other great QB’s his defenses, his field goal kickers/ special teams, and his coaches, and their chip count is right where Brady’s is. Maybe they have one or two less, or maybe one or two more.
I do put Brady in the discussion of all time greats, but it is and always will be just that… a discussion.
ROGER FEDERER – The Fed just did something no one thought he could do. At 35 years of age, (geriatric for tennis) coming off a six month layoff due to knee surgery and having not won a tennis major since 2012 Wimbledon, he won his 18th grand slam title, The Australian Open. He increased his record and lead to 4 slams over Rafael Nadal and Pete Sampras. To win the tournament he had to go the distance, 5 sets, in his last three matches, beating Nadal in an epic final. To many, this win, especially against Nadal, who has dominated their head to head competition, cements Roger as the GOAT.
You would think that declaring a GOAT would be much easier in an individual sport versus team but in tennis it certainly is not. Tennis is played on different surfaces, clay, grass, hard, carpet, and indoor/ outdoor, that greatly affects the way the game is played. Further, when trying to compare different generations, you have vast changes in racket and string technology, changes in surface, and advancement in training and recovery from injury.
I’m a HUGE Federer fan. I was elated for him for his latest slam win. I draw personal inspiration from it as well, but objectivity requires that I point out the obvious. Nadal is without question the better clay court player. If not for a series of injuries, Nadal may have more slam titles than Fed, and he does have the head to head edge. Pete Sampras, who was not the all-around player Fed is may be his equal or better on grass. Novak Djokovic at his best at the Aussie? I’m not betting the ranch on either player. At the U.S. Open, Andre Agassi in his prime, Sampras and others could have given Fed a run. In fact in a hypothetical tournament of champions, Federer might not be the number one seed in any of the four slams.
Fed’s slam total, masterful play and the fact that he would likely be the first, second, third, or fourth seed in all hypothetical slams of champions of course puts him in the discussion, but cemented shut? Nope. Most accomplished doesn’t automatically mean GOAT.
SERENA WILLIAMS – Sticking with tennis. In the women’s game, Serena just won her 23rd grand slam, passing Steffi Graf for the modern-day women’s lead. Also at the age of 35, Miss Williams is still dominant, ranked number 1 and may add to her already spectacular resume.
However. I’m going to name some other players for you: Justine Henin, Kim Clijsters, Maria Sharapova, Venus Williams, Jennifer Capriati, Lindsey Davenport, Martina Hingis and Monica Seles. What do all of these players have in common?
- They all of have won multiple grand slams.
- They were all ranked number one at one time.
- Their careers all overlapped with Serena’s.
- They all prematurely retired, or took time off due to injury, desired to get pregnant and start a family, in the case of Venus Williams, illness slowed her down, and in the case of Monica Seles, she was stabbed on the tennis court.
Those are eight battle tested champions. That’s a lot. Setting aside Seles for a moment, let’s say that Serena is better than every player mentioned above. I submit that if half of these players didn’t leave the sport prematurely of suffer injury, they would have dented Serena’s slam total, which seems to be the nail that shuts the door on the GOAT conversation. My Mt. Rushmore of women’s tennis is Martina Navratilova, Steffi Graf, Monica Seles and of course Serena Williams.
My personal favorite female player is Seles. Seles, the sports world, including other players like Graf and Williams, were robbed when Seles’ career was irreversibly effected by the stabbing. Seles ended up with 9 slams. No doubt she would have had many more if not for the lost years and psychological effect of such an event.
Her meteoric rise at such a young age came before that of Tiger Woods’ ascension in golf. Seles, by age 19, had begun to dominate then GOAT candidate Graf. God forbid Woods had been stabbed after his 8th slam in golf and had he come back to only win one more, we’d be hearing for decades how he would have won 15 to 20 more slams easy. History has not afforded Seles the same status they should have and would have if she were born in America or perhaps if she was a he.
But I digress. Serena is an all-time great and given the length of her greatness and dominance and the fact her career is still going, the female tennis GOAT conversation does begin with her, but it does not end. And like the men, in a tournament of champions her seeding may vary by surface.
MICHAEL JORDAN – Toughest for last. I love me some Michael Jordan. When I think of MJ, I think of that scene in Rocky II when Apollo Creed’s trainer, Duke, is trying to talk Apollo out of a rematch with Rocky. Apollo asks Duke what is he afraid of. Duke’s answer is, “I saw you beat that man like I saw you beat no man before… and the man, kept, coming, after you … We don’t need that kind of man in our life…” Jordan, had Rocky’s heart and determination, and Apollo’s talent. A true terminator. But the end of discussion GOAT? I can’t go there. Even for Michael.
When talking about all-time greats in basketball, big men seemed to get short-changed. Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain. These are greats that can’t just be dismissed because their games don’t possess flash and style, or because they played more than 15 years ago.
Weirdly enough, the “chip” discussion in basketball only seems to apply to modern players and the flashy two guard or small forward. Kobe Bryant and Lebron James can’t be better than MJ because they have less rings? (They’re not for other reasons but like I said, I love me some MJ) However, less rings doesn’t seem to disqualify MJ in the comparison to Bill Russell. Kareem has as many rings, scored more points and won more MVP’s, was an eleven time all defensive player, and had the most indefensible shot in the game.
MJ was a transcendent player who took the NBA to new levels. With all due respect to the logo, (Jerry West), for all of his contributions to the game, and his game, the NBA should consider redoing the logo to Jordan’s image, and or do for him what hockey did for Wayne Gretzky and retire MJ’s jersey in all arena’s… But that still doesn’t make him the end of discussion GOAT.
These are just several examples of “GOAT” athletes. I could have picked others. In the case of Brady, Federer, Williams and Jordan, I am not saying that any of the them are not the GOAT in their respective sports, just that you can’t close the book, especially based on most championships. There are lots of considerations, and this blog just begins to scratch the surface.