10 Reasons The NY Yankees Won’t Win World Series in 2018

Image result for yankees world series wins

Overnight, the “Baby Bombers”, morphed back into the “Evil Empire”, and the bandwagon is getting crowded fast.  However, before Yankee fans (of which I am one) start celebrating number 28, (as in World Series wins) below is ten reasons why that flag may not be raised come November.

10Surprise team.  Which team might this be?  I don’t know, that’s why they call it a surprise.  Not too many people were picking The Philadelphia Eagles to win the Superbowl this year.  Since the inception of the wild card in 1994, six wild cards have won the world series.  That, and worst to first is like a thing now.

9Aaron Judge does not duplicate rookie success.  Judge can have a great year and still fall short of 52 homers and 114 RBI.  You can’t just pencil in production like that.  And while he is expected to be 100% ready by spring training, he did have off-season shoulder surgery.  I guess we will find out if that second half slide he has last season was due to the shoulder or pitchers adjusting to him.

8Giancarlo Stanton just had the best year of his career.   It is also the first time in his 8 seasons he has played more than 150 games.  What are the odds he plays all 162 again?  And while he did not come to the Yankees via free agency, it is his first season in NY, with a huge contract and huge expectations, oftentimes, it takes half a season to a season to adjust to life and pressure in the pinstripes.

7Thin starting pitching.  There is a reason why GM Brian Cashman is scouring the pitching market.  For an ace/ #1, Luis Severino can be inconsistent, Mashahiro Tanaka under-performed last season, and his elbow is still a candidate for needing Tommy John surgery.  CC Sabathia has knee issues and father time banging on his door, and Sonny Grey is good but doesn’t scare anybody.  Like former hall of fame Yankee manager Joe Torre use to say… We will only be as good as our pitching.

6Injuries.  You never know who or when the bug might hit you.  In addition to red flags of Tanaka and Sabathia, Aroldis Chapman spent time hurt last season.  In the four seasons prior to last, Stanton missed, 43, 88, 17, and 46 games.

5– Reacting to the pressure.  The Yankees are no longer be the cute underdog Baby Bombers.  They are among the favorites.  In other words they’re back to being the hunted.  We’ll see how the players and the rookie manager handle the pressure and adversity that comes with that.

4– Dodgers are still the favorite.  The Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs will still be around.

3– Bullpen may be overratedAroldis Chapman was inconsistent and showing signs of declineDellin Betances was a disappointment last season.  Yes the pen is still a strength, but it may be just a tad overrated and overused due to a starting rotation that doesn’t give you a ton of innings (in part due to analytic era) and possible injuries.  Will they be fresh by the postseason?

2– Rookie Manager/ rookie bench coach – it’s all well and good to have a winning smile, and get all along with everyone at ESPN, but neither that nor the home run Aaron Boone hit in 2003 will prepare him for every situation he will face.  Looks like he makes a great “good cop”, but sometimes being a great manager means being “a bad cop”, and analytics won’t always have the answer.   Not sure if it’s all-inclusive, but according to ESPN, rookie managers don’t win often.

1– Teams with better starting pitching.  This goes with number 7.  The Bombers may set all kinds of records during the regular season, in part due to feasting on pitching on bad teams.  The playoffs tend to bring out the teams with very good to great pitching.  Right now, the teams list in number 4 have better starters.

With their hitting and bullpen, the Yankees are clearly built to make a strong regular season run.  The post season?  Not so sure.  Of course other teams can be hit by injuries, and there is still plenty of time for the Yankees to improve their starting pitching via free agency, trade, or one of their ballyhooed prospects coming into play.

It will not be a big surprise if the Yankees do win number 28, but these are some reasons not to plan the parade down the Canyon of Heroes just yet.

Why The Stanton to Yankees Jeter Conspiracy Doesn’t Make Sense

Image result for giancarlo stanton derek jeter

About ten years ago, Minnesota Timberwolves Vice President and former Boston Celtic great Kevin McHale, gifted Kevin Garnett to the Boston Celtics.

Back then there was some noise about it, but social media being what it is now and the New York Yankees being involved this time and being “the evil empire” and all, this Giancarlo Stanton trade is drumming up a lot of conspiracy talk.

Yes, Derek Jeter, part owner of the Miami Marlins, is a Yankee icon who just traded the 2017 NL MVP to his former team.   And many think there is something fishy about that.  (Sorry, I had to.)

Sorry to inject some reasoning and get in the way of a good conspiracy but let’s look at some of the factors that existed prior to and brought about this trade…

  • The Miami Marlins were financially challenged before and after Jeter’s ownership group took over the team.
  • The Marlins have had two “fire sales” prior to Jeter’s arrival and it was considered a possibility there would be a third regardless of who the new owner was.
  • Stanton has a monster contract and was likely to be traded under this scenario.
  • Are conspiracy theorists suggesting that for years the Marlins were intentionally losing money, had two fire sales so they could sell the team and set up a third and not look suspicious?  I didn’t think so.

However, Miami homer, The Dan Le Batard show tweeted:

This sounds asinine.  MLB didn’t plan for the Marlins fiscal woes or for Jeter coming in with a competitive group to buy.  Jeter may not be Michael Jordan, but to many, he was the face of baseball for a long time. MLB saw the opportunity to place the face of the game, and a minority, into ownership, that is a good thing.  It doesn’t mean he’ll do a good job, but it explains why they would want him.

Questions and Speculation:

  1. Did the Yankees or Jeter give Stanton a no trade clause in his contract?
  2. Didn’t Derek Jeter complete deals in principal with the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants? Was this a ruse?  Were the Cardinals and Giants in on “the conspiracy” or were they patsies?
  3. Did the Yankees or Jeter determine which teams would be on Stanton’s approved list?
  4. Were the Los Angeles Dodgers Stanton’s first choice?  and did the Yankees or Jeter know what offer LA would or would not make?
  5. Was Stanton lying about LA being his dream team to play for having grown up in Los Angeles, and being a Dodger fan just to throw us off the track and conspire to join the Yankees?
  6. Was Derek Jeter’s last contract with the Yankees contentious?… Yes it was.
  7. Was there a reported frost between Jeter, and Yankee GM Brian Cashman, who told Jeter to shop the Yankee offer and take it or leave it?  Apparently so.
  8. Even after making over 200 million from the Yankees Jeter was looking to get every last dime on his last contract.
  9. Is Jeter one of the most competitive athletes to play in any sport?
  10. Is Jeter likely to take a lesser deal from the Yankees both in terms of talent and money saved, which his franchise is desperate for?
  11. Do you think Jeter wants to succeed as an owner?
  12. Would he intentionally take a lesser deal from the Yankees and Cashman, then he could get elsewhere?
  13. Have the Yankees been setting themselves up for years to reset the penalty fees they pay, in part to sign Bryce Harper at the end of 2018?  Okay I can understand some skepticism on this one.  But if the Yankees weren’t serious about this, then why did they trade for Sonny Gray this past season at the trade deadline and not Justin Verlander or Yu Darvish?  Why not both?
  14. Image result for giancarlo stantonDid the Yankees have a need for, and could Jeter have anticipated, Yankee interest in Stanton?  Nope.  Not with Judge and their loaded farm system, and their need for starting pitching.

Is this a bad deal for Marlin fans? You bet.  It sucks.  And while this deal fell into the Yankees lap (ergo not planned, not a conspiracy), and looks great today, it may bite them, (especially if this deal comes at the expense of shoring up their pitching) like many long-term big money contracts have.

I’ve been against these long-term deals for a while.  I was fine with Yanks not matching Seattle and letting Robinson Cano walk. And wrote this in 2011 about why St. Louis should not resign Albert Pujols, and how most long-term deals don’t work out.

I’m sure talk radio, the twitter mob, and usual suspects who like to hate on the Yankees will gin up the conspiracy talk, but when considering the above, it just doesn’t add up.

By all means continue to hate and or root against the evil empire if you will, just not over a conspiracy theory that isn’t.

####